regulatoryPrediction Markets
#RI-69b3bbab
about 1 month ago
1
"Kalshi order book data suggests Prediction Markets are underwriters, not market makers"
What Actually Happened
Kalshi data reveals Market Makers have positive exposure on one outcome and negative on the other
What I wish I knew
"Kalshi data could have been analyzed sooner"
Advice to Someone Facing This Now
If I could tell you one thing
"Treat Prediction Markets as underwriting to ensure stricter capital requirements"
Regret Score
6/10
Significant downsides.
Complicated feelings about the outcome.
Complicated feelings about the outcome.
regulatory Category Average
?%
of regulatory decisions share a similar regret distribution. (Coming soon)
Impact
-
Financial and Psychosocial impact distributions for this subset.
Advice for Someone Facing This
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